The market for vintage watches (and modern ones come to think of it) has experienced something of a changing of the guard in the past two years. I get the sense that collectors who are primarily investment focused have and continue to react to this change, especially if their social media content is an indicator. I don't participate much in the social media sphere these days, but every now and again it's a good confirmation of what is going on ;)

In the wider market, it appears that time only watches, such as Rolex Subs. GMTs etc are not as in demand as they once were, with the latest May auctions showing falling values. The rapid rise of "Independents", such as FPJ has also seen something of a large downward correction after the very frothy market of the past few years, which was, as ever driven as much by those whose business is in selling and/or promoting watches. This rinse and repeat process which has happened to most, if not all collectible brands (including Heuer of course) and sectors at some point, is an inevitable fact of the watch world and hopefully most collectors can spot the danger signs well before market peaks! Modern watches, which ran up most during Covid, have well and truly had the air let out of their tyres, especially the references that are still being produced today. However stability appears to have returned and I believe most of the downward falls are now factored in (give or take), especially as the prices of new watches continue to rise. Any rise in tariffs, that may or may not come into effect, will only bolster the price of used modern examples, so the time is probably right if modern is your thing. 

There is definitely evidence that smaller watches are now more in vogue, with larger 42mm plus watches becoming less desirable. However, while some male "fashionistas" may pull off being able to wear a 30mm watch, and while dealers will probably try to market this as the next big thing, I don't believe it will be a widespread trend in the men's market, so buyer beware. The perfect size for a watch, if one took a wide ranging poll, would be 38mm and probably expands down to 35mm and up to 40mm. This is one of the reasons why the 1970s Autavia was overtaken by early Autavia and Carrera, and I don't think we will see that reverse any time soon. 

When it comes to Heuer and the rest of the vintage chronograph world, I don't think much has materially changed in the past year. There is virtually zero supply of great examples of the most sought after pieces; most collectors don't want to sell them, auctions hardly ever have anything to get excited about, and new to market pieces come up only once in a blue moon (and I don't mean Swatch Speedmaster version). Where this leaves us is largely where we were at the last update! The very best haven't moved in price, however the one area where demand is noticeably weaker is with poor and average condition watches. Nobody really wants to spend £5000 on a poor Rindt, even if the very best examples may be four times the amount. What joy can be derived from owning such an example? How easy would it be to sell on once you realise this? It wouldn't! Consequently nobody wants to buy them, with perhaps the only exception being if a collector needed the parts for something else. The market remains one that rewards the best of the best and, as I never tire of saying, that's not going to change.

I touched on the Heuer themed auction "Champions" back in December but given the dearth of Heuer pieces for sale at auction since then allow me to revisit. It saw some interesting pieces, although none in the very best condition, and with some with "issues" which I believe stopped the results being stronger. It was excellent to see some watches with "race" history perform decently, considering they were not "front line" motorsport names, and of course the customary impressive result for one of the McQueen "Le Mans" film watches. No doubt this all leans into the new F1 sponsorship deal. The TAG Heuer / F1 partnership is interesting and, in my opinion, can only be a positive for vintage Heuer collectors, because the new F1 inspired watch range will be a gateway for younger audiences into the vintage brand. There is definitely space in the new watch market for "cool" rather than "luxury" at the moment, and that definitely aligns to a younger audience. Cool is also a word that I would align more closely with vintage Heuer in comparison to the other vintage chronograph players and nobody does motorsport like Heuer. Remember that if there is one thing in particular that TAG Heuer are experts in, that is surely marketing, and I expect the relationship to be strong for their bottom line.

Collector wise, there have been a few stand out condition "grail" pieces which I know have traded since December, a 2446 and 2447 Seafarer, 7754 Skipper, and a new old stock Rindt, all at prices at or above guide levels. This continues to be the avenue that top Heuer collectors prefer to take, one that takes out the middle man (dealer or auctioneer) who will charge both sides too much for the "privilege" and probably won't be able to target the right market either.

Guide values have remained mostly stable, with some further small adjustments to average condition values. This update also sees the inclusion for the first time of "Poor" values, for watches where all parts are heavily worn/damaged. Essentially this low value represents what is possible to be salvaged from the watch as parts because dials, cases, movements and hands that are in such condition have a very low value. In the vintage watch world, more than ever, condition is EVERYTHING.

The next update will be in December.